| Политико-экономическая модель исследования революционного потенциала населения в диктаторских режимах на примере современной Aфрики | |
| Коновалов Денис Александрович 1 | |
| 1.1Омский государственный университет им. Ф.М. Достоевского | |
| Дата поступления 2021.10.06 | Аннотация. Революционный потенциал населения, живущего в условиях диктатуры, исследуется на примере современных африканских государств. Проанализирована возможность исследования революционного потенциала населения с точки зрения политико-экономических аспектов в тех случаях, когда невозможно ориентироваться на социологические данные. Создана регрессионная модель, учитывающая такие переменные, как чистый доход, уровень неравенства, военные расходы, безработица, инфляция, социальное благополучие (индекс счастья). Представлены выводы, преимущества и ограничения применения сформулированной регрессионной модели при изучении современных африканских диктатур. |
| Ключевые слова политология и международные отношения, Африка, диктатура, политическая экономия, революционный потенциал, регрессионная модель | |
Библиография 1. Axelrod R. The evolution of cooperation. – New York : Basic Books, 1984. – 241 р. 2. Baran P., Sweezy P. Monopoly capital: an essay on the American economic and social order. – New York : Monthly Review Press, 1966. – 416 р. 3. Tullock G. Why so much stability // Public choice. – 1981. – Vol. 2, № 37. – Р. 189–204. 4. Olsson-Yaouzis N. Ideology, Rationality, and Revolution. An Essay on the Persistence of Oppression. – Stockholm : Stockholm University, 2012. – 182 p. 5. Kent S. On Revolution and Realism: A Structural Realist Theory of Revolution. – Boston College, 2013. – 126 p. 6. MacCulloch R. What Makes a Revolution? : LSE STICERD Research Paper No. DEDPS30. – 2008. – 47 p. – URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/6649/1/What_makes_a_revolution.pdf (дата обращения: 29.05.2021). 7. Hirshleifer J. Anarchy and its Breakdown // Journal of Political Economy. – 1995. – Vol. 103, № 1. – P. 26–52. – DOI: 10.1086/261974. 8. Skapedas S. Cooperation, Conflict, and Power in the Absence of Property Rights // American Economic Review. – 1992. – Vol. 4, № 82. – P. 720–739. 9. Grossman H., Kim M. Swords or Plowshares? A Theory of the Security of Claims to Property // Journal of Political Economy. – 1995. – Vol. 6, № 103. – P. 1275–1288. 10. Tarrow S. Struggle, Politics and Reform: Collective Action and Politics. – New York : Cambridge University Press, 1994. – 251 p. 11. Francisco R. Theories of Protest and the Revolutions of 1989 // American Journal of Political Science. – 1993. – Vol. 3, № 37. – P. 663–680. 12. Durham Y., Hirshleifer J., Smith V. Do the Rich Get Richer and the Poor Poorer? Experimental Tests of a Model of Power // American Economic. – 1998. – Vol. 4, № 88. – P. 970–983. 13. Kuran T. The East European Revolution of 1989: Is It Surprising that We Were Surprised? // American Economic Review. – 1991. – Vol. 2, № 81. – P. 121–125. 14. Lohmann S. The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989-91 // World Politics. – 1994. – № 47 (October). – P. 42–101. 15. Hicks A., Swank D. Politics, Institutions and Welfare Spending in Industrialized Democracies 1960-82 // American Political Science Review. – 1992. – № 86. – P. 658–674. | |
Сведения о финансировании и благодарности | |
| Political and Economic Model Research of Revolutionary Potential the Population in Dictatorships on the Example of Contemporary Africa | |
| Konovalov Denis A.1 | |
| 1.1Dostoevsky Omsk State University | |
| Received 2021.10.06 | Abstract. The article is devoted to the study of the revolutionary potential of the population living in a dictatorship on the example of modern African states. The article analyzes the possibility of studying the revolutionary potential of the population from the point of view of political and economic aspects in cases where it is impossible to focus on sociological data. A regression model has been created that takes into account such variables as net income, level of inequality, military spending, unemployment, inflation, social well-being (happiness index). The conclusions, advantages and limitations of the application of the formulated regression model in the study of modern African dictatorships are presented. |
| Keywords political science and international relations, Africa, dictatorship, political economy, revolutionary potential, regression model | |
References 1. Axelrod R. The evolution of cooperation, New York, Basic Books Publ., 1984, 241 р. 2. Baran P., Sweezy P. Monopoly capital: an essay on the American economic and social order, New York, Monthly Review Press, 1966, 416 р. 3. Tullock G. Why so much stability. Public choice, 1981, vol. 2, no. 37, pp. 189-204. 4. Olsson-Yaouzis N. Ideology, Rationality, and Revolution. An Essay on the Persistence of Oppression, Stockholm, Stockholm University Publ., 2012, 182 p. 5. Kent S. On Revolution and Realism: A Structural Realist Theory of Revolution, Boston College, 2013, 126 p. 6. MacCulloch R. What Makes a Revolution?, LSE STICERD Research Paper No. DEDPS30, 2008, 47 p., available at: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/6649/1/What_makes_a_revolution.pdf (accessed: 29.05.2021). 7. Hirshleifer J. Anarchy and its Breakdown. Journal of Political Economy, 1995, vol. 103, no. 1, pp. 26-52. DOI: 10.1086/261974. 8. Skapedas S. Cooperation, Conflict, and Power in the Absence of Property Rights. American Economic Review, 1992, vol. 4, no. 82, pp. 720-739. 9. Grossman H., Kim M. Swords or Plowshares? A Theory of the Security of Claims to Property. Journal of Political Economy, 1995, vol. 6, no. 103, pp. 1275-1288. 10. Tarrow S. Struggle, Politics and Reform: Collective Action and Politics, New York, Cambridge University Press, 1994, 251 p. 11. Francisco R. Theories of Protest and the Revolutions of 1989. American Journal of Political Science, 1993, vol. 3, no. 37, pp. 663-680. 12. Durham Y., Hirshleifer J., Smith V. Do the Rich Get Richer and the Poor Poorer? Experimental Tests of a Model of Power. American Economic, 1998, vol. 4, no. 88, pp. 970-983. 13. Kuran T. The East European Revolution of 1989: Is It Surprising that We Were Surprised? American Economic Review, 1991, vol. 2, no. 81, pp. 121-125. 14. Lohmann S. The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989-91. World Politics, 1994, no. 47 (October), pp. 42-101. 15. Hicks A., Swank D. Politics, Institutions and Welfare Spending in Industrialized Democracies 1960-82. American Political Science Review, 1992, no. 86, pp. 658-674. | |
Acknowledgements | |
| Сведения об авторах Коновалов Денис Александрович 1.1 |
| About the authors Konovalov Denis A. 1.1 |
